Australia’s largest independent oil and gas producer has delivered a mixed update. The Woodside Energy 2026 production forecast has been lowered at the top end, but third-quarter revenue climbed on stronger LNG prices. Woodside now expects full-year output of 174 to 181 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). That is down from its earlier range of 174 to 185 MMboe. Quarterly revenue still rose to US$4.28 billion, and the company’s flagship Scarborough LNG project is now 99% complete. For investors, energy watchers and anyone following global gas supply, the numbers tell two stories at once.
What Woodside Energy Actually Changed in Its 2026 Production Forecast
The company did not cut its outlook across the board. It lowered only the upper limit of the range, leaving the bottom end at 174 MMboe. Capital expenditure guidance was left alone at US$4 billion to US$4.5 billion. Three factors drove the trim: lower expected volumes from the Beaumont New Ammonia plant in Texas, reduced production at the Okha floating production vessel, and a tighter window for the first Scarborough LNG cargo. In practice, the forecast is now more precise rather than much weaker. A range that narrows with only a quarter left to run tends to reflect better visibility, not sudden trouble.
Third-Quarter Results: Revenue Rises Even as Output Slips Year on Year
Woodside reported operating revenue of US$4.28 billion for the three months to 30 September. That is about 2% above the second quarter and roughly 27% above the US$3.36 billion booked a year earlier. Production reached 46.2 MMboe, a 12% rebound from the previous quarter but still about 9% below the same period in 2025. Price did the heavy lifting. The average realised price was US$84 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 27% on the second quarter and around 40% higher than a year ago. The company pointed to price lags from earlier in the year, gains from LNG portfolio optimisation and firmer gas hub pricing. Reliability was strong at its key assets, with Sangomar, the North West Shelf and Pluto LNG all above 99%.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Operating revenue | US$4.28 billion | Up about 2% on Q2; up about 27% year on year |
| Production | 46.2 MMboe | Up 12% on Q2; down about 9% year on year |
| Average realised price | US$84/boe | Up 27% on Q2 |
| 2026 production guidance | 174-181 MMboe | Previously 174-185 MMboe |
| 2026 capex guidance | US$4-4.5 billion | Unchanged |
| Scarborough Energy Project | 99% complete | First LNG targeted for Q4 2026 |
Why the Beaumont Ammonia Plant Is Weighing on Output
The biggest drag is Beaumont New Ammonia. Production there was held to about 69% of nameplate capacity during the quarter because of limited third-party feedstock. The plant was also shut for roughly 30 days after a process safety event. Woodside has cut its expected Beaumont contribution for the year to 1.5-2.5 MMboe. It has also said it will begin a formal process to reduce its investment in the project after a strategic review. The company continues to target lower-carbon ammonia production in 2027, subject to hydrogen supply and carbon capture infrastructure. The episode shows how new-energy projects can be slower and less predictable than established LNG operations.
The Bigger Picture: Scarborough, Trion and Louisiana LNG
The more important story for Woodside’s future may be the growth pipeline. Scarborough, a roughly US$12 billion development off Western Australia, remains on budget and on track for its first LNG cargo before the end of 2026. Trion, a deepwater oil project in Mexico, is 71% complete and targets first oil in 2028. Louisiana LNG in the United States has reached 32% completion and aims to start production in 2029. If Scarborough delivers on schedule, it should lift volumes from 2027 onward. Investors should watch three things next:
- Confirmation of the first Scarborough LNG cargo, expected in the fourth quarter
- Whether Woodside lands in the upper or lower half of its narrowed range
- Updates on the Beaumont investment review and the timeline for lower-carbon ammonia
FAQs
What is Woodside Energy’s new 2026 production forecast?
Woodside now expects 174 to 181 MMboe for 2026, down from a previous range of 174 to 185 MMboe.
Why did Woodside trim its forecast?
The main reasons were lower expected volumes from the Beaumont New Ammonia plant, reduced output at the Okha floating production vessel, and a narrower window for the first Scarborough LNG cargo.
How much revenue did Woodside report for the third quarter?
Operating revenue was US$4.28 billion, driven mainly by higher realised LNG and gas prices and a quarterly rebound in production.
When will Scarborough LNG start?
Woodside says the project is 99% complete and remains on track for its first LNG cargo in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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